In January 2026, India and the European Union finalized negotiations on a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), concluding a process that spanned nearly two decades. Announced on January 27, 2026, during a summit in New Delhi, the agreement creates one of the world’s largest free trade zones, encompassing nearly 2 billion people and 25% of global GDP.
The signed agreement stipulates the elimination of tariffs on approximately 99.5% of Indian exports while simultaneously liberalizing 92.1% of Indian tariff lines, covering 97.5% of EU exports. The agreement is expected to enter into force in early 2027, following ratification processes in the European Parliament and the Indian Cabinet.
The Agreement brings significant changes to the services and advanced technology sectors:
- Service Market Access: EU companies will gain privileged access to the Indian services market, covering not only the financial and transport sectors but also digital infrastructure and innovation.
- Intellectual Property Protection: The agreement guarantees a high level of protection and enforcement of intellectual property (IP) rights, including trademarks and trade secrets. The alignment of regulations between both parties will facilitate trade and investment for technology-based business models.
- Strategic Cooperation: Beyond the FTA itself, both parties signed a Comprehensive Strategic Agenda, which provides for deepened cooperation in cybersecurity, digital resilience, and emerging technologies (AI).
The Polish Telecommunications Market in the New Trade Reality
Poland, as a leader in digitalization in the CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) region with a massive demand for fiber-optic infrastructure (KPO and FERC programs), becomes a key beneficiary and a competitive arena following this agreement with India. Amid growing restrictions on Chinese providers, India may become a “safe harbor” and a technological alternative to China for Poland. The FTA facilitates the certification of Indian components and services in the Polish market and vice versa.
Polish companies in the Telecommunications Software & OSS/BSS sector stand to gain a genuine chance for expansion. As India invests billions in developing its own connectivity standards, Polish firms offering network management systems and cybersecurity will gain easier access to public procurement there. The formation of Polish-Indian technological hubs is expected, where Polish engineers will work on optimizing algorithms for Indian telecom giants such as Reliance Jio or Airtel.
The liberalization of trade in services may also include the movement of specialists, providing Polish telecom firms with easier access to high-class Indian engineers to fill staffing gaps. Conversely, competition for Polish developers from Indian giants opening offices in Warsaw or Krakow may lead to another wave of wage pressure.
Anti-dumping Duties on Fiber Optic Cables
A key question for the telecommunications industry remains the status of duties on Indian optical fiber cables (OFC). In our assessment, despite the signing of the FTA, the legal situation in this area remains complex. In December 2024, the European Commission imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on imports of fiber optic cables from India. Additionally, on June 10, 2025, definitive countervailing duties (anti-subsidy) were introduced. These measures are set to remain in effect for 5 years (until 2031). While not all Indian producers were covered by anti-dumping duties, the countervailing duties established an average total tariff barrier of 8.1–12.5% affecting all imports from the region. Although this is significantly lower than the duties applied to Chinese imports, it remains a significant trade factor and is noticeable in price levels on the Polish market.
The Impact of Chinese Imports
Competition from Chinese manufacturers and the massive Chinese domestic market have long influenced the Indian market and global trade flows, including to the EU. Following proceedings by the European Commission since 2018, the total cost of importing cables from China—consisting of anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (AS) duties—now stands at 44.5–98.3%, with most manufacturers subject to the 98.3% rate (following a 2023 “anti-absorption” investigation).
It is worth noting that the expiry dates for these measures are approaching. Anti-dumping duties expire on November 19, 2026, and countervailing duties expire on January 19, 2027—a period when duties on Indian entities will still be in force, unless the EU industry files for an “expiry review” three months prior. If the Commission determines that subsidization continues to threaten EU producers, duties may be extended for another 5 years.
Regardless of the EU’s decision on these barriers, Chinese manufacturers have since opened factories within Europe (two in Poland, one in Hungary), bypassing prohibitive duties while maintaining prices significantly lower than those offered by domestic, European, or Indian producers.
The Future of Cable Duties under the FTA
Although the FTA eliminates standard tariffs, the EU has retained the right to use trade defense instruments. The Commission has declared its readiness to monitor the implementation of the agreement and evaluate existing protective measures; however, for now, the aforementioned anti-dumping duties on Indian cable producers remain in effect.
The EU leaves the door open for changes only through formal procedures like a “Review Investigation.” If Indian exporters prove that subsidies have ceased or prices have been permanently raised to market levels, they may apply for an interim review. Additional opportunities lie within the FTA clauses themselves, which establish joint technical committees to monitor “trade barriers,” providing a forum to negotiate future easing of restrictions in exchange for stricter control of Indian state support for the industry.
Global Shortage in Fiber and Cable Availability
In an era of surging global demand for fiber optic cables and accelerated European investment in broadband projects, it is clear that EU regulations are not keeping pace with market needs. Looking at European producers and their new China-based competitors on European soil, one might argue that the European Commission’s efforts have missed the mark. From the perspective of consumers, it may be worth considering progressive deregulation, starting with extending the FTA to include customs exemptions for fiber optic cables.
